Wednesday, May 05, 2010

Looks like we'll hang 'em high

I have no idea what the outcome of the election might be. The polls are all over the place.

One puts the Tories on 37 per cent of the vote, another on 32 per cent. One has the Lib-Dems in the lead on 33 per cent and another puts them on a mere 23 per cent.

Nobody’s got a clue who will win which is why it’s all such fun (If you’re not participating and if, like me, you think the outcome won’t make much difference because we all know the next Government has only one task and that’s a nasty one).

Before the campaign started I expected a Conservative majority of 30. That looks a bit unlikely now, though it still wouldn't surprise me.

Still, for what it’s worth, based on a cursory study of the conflicting polls and assuming they have some veracity, here’s a prediction: Conservatives 303 seats, Labour 242, Lib-Dems 76, others 29. That would leave David Cameron with the largest party.

He would have to form a minority Government and dare the Lib-Dems to bring him down. It might last 18 months or more.

1 comment:

MalcolmCog said...

I was at a conference at the QE2 Centre in Westminster a while ago, I seem to remember that the lamposts around Parliament Square are fairly substantial, well able to support a dangling M.P. My only worry is; are there enough for all of our elected representative ?